Currently it has not doubt to exert green empowering effect of “New Infrastructural Construction” to confront the upcoming carbon peaking, constraints of natural resources, CoVID19’s impacts and technical industrial reform. High-tech industry is of intensive knowledge, low resource consumption and low pollution, its innovative capabilities can embody industrial advances and help convert economy to an intensive and environment-friendly mode. This paper, viewing from green recovery, studies the theoretical mechanism of “new infrastructural construction” on high-tech industrial innovation. Inputs and use of “new infrastructural construction" as a vital means of green development and industrial innovation matters. This paper, based on China’s 28 province’s 2008 to 2020 panel data, uses baseline regression model to study impacts of “new infrastructural construction” on high-tech industrial innovative capabilities which has been validated by stability test through replacement of variables. Regression analysis is also conducted on China’s east and west. Mediating effect model is applied to study the impacts of cost saving effect, overflow effect and human capital effect on high-tech industrial innovation. Overall, “new infrastructural construction” can improve high-tech industrial innovative capabilities, outstandingly in eastern China little in central and western China. Human capital effect is an important path to improving high-tech industrial technical innovative capabilities in “new infrastructural construction”, but cost saving effect has a little overflow due to its masking effect. It concludes that China should support “new infrastructural construction”, exerts governmental leading role in advancing investment in central and western China, makes “new infrastructural construction” a path to high-tech industrial innovative capabilities, which is key to economic development, ecological sustability and industrial innovation.
FORECAST OF JIANGSU'S CARBON BALANCE POTENTIAL UNDER “DUAL CARBON” OBJECTIVES
This paper estimates Jiangsu's carbon emission and absorption and forecasts its future carbon balance potential, offering reference for China to reach strategic objectives of “2030 carbon peak, and 2060 carbon neutralization” (“dual carbon” objectives), and to materialize ecological civilization construction. This paper establishes an indictor system to forecast Jiangsu's carbon balance potential and improves STIRPAT model based on 1996 to 2019 carbon emission data and LMDI factors, which is used to forecast Jiangsu’s 2020 to 2060 carbon emission under 9 scenarios. GM(1, 1) is employed to forecast Jiangsu’s future carbon absorption and 2004 to 2060 carbon balance evolution. Results show that Jiangsu’s carbon emission grows fast, most contributed by population, income and energy structure, but offset by energy intensity and carbon emission intensity. According to the forecasted results of STIRPAT model, nine scenarios can be classified as high carbonhigh growth, intermediate carbonintermediate growth and low carbonlow growth in terms of cabon peak and time. The premium scenario 3 in the lowcarbonlow growth can reach carbon peak as early as in 2029, at 330 0386 kt carbon dioxide, and decline to 242 7419 kt in 2060. Jiangsu’s carbon absorption is forecasted to growth slowly, up to 30 mt carbon dioxide in 2053, and 30955 84 mt in 2060. Jiangsu will face a lagging carbon balance, with a peak deficit up to 302860 3 mt carbon dioxide in 2029, falling to 211786 0 mt in 2060. Carbon balance pressure index will fall to 784 in 2060 from 1216 in 2025, suggesting a big pressure over Jiangsu. Jiangsu has a limited ecological carbon absorption capacity, facing a big challenge on carbon balance even according to the premium scenario 3. This paper presents suggestions on adjusting energy high carbon structure, boosting green technical innovation, decreasing carbon emission, increasing green land area, protecting natural environment, raising carbon absorption capacity, developing green carbon reduction and technical carbonfixing, diminishing carbon deficit and mitigating cabon balance pressure from carbon emission, carbon absorption and carbon balance, which helps China reach 2060 carbon neutralization.
Under the current economic situation, green development, resource-saving and environment-friendly society lies in increasing green technical innovation capacity, which relies upon internal self-search, and also upon openness to gain global technical overflow. This paper selects 17 nations as China's technical overflow, taking green patent as green technical innovation indicators, employs China's provincial panel data of 2007 to 2017 to establish a spatial Dubin model which serves to check the impacts of global technical overflow on China's green technical innovation. China's provincially environmental technical innovation is characterized by outstanding spatial clustering, with local closely related to its vicinity geographically. Global technical overflow from imported trading largely promotes the green technical innovation where the imported is. Global technical overflow from bidirectional FDI plays a negative role, but internal research capital stock does positively. Interaction between OFDI and internal research capital stock enhances the green technical innovation.